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Minnesota Vikings

3-2 HC Mike Zimmer
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New York Giants

2-3 HC Pat Shurmur
Sunday 2019-10-06 · 13:00 ET MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

MIN
35.4%
NYG
64.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NYG: Daniel Jones (NYG) +0.154 vs Kirk Cousins (MIN) -0.081 EPA/dropback
  • MIN offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • NYG offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIN 21 14–28
–
NYG 22 15–29
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

MIN

Mackensie Alexander CB Out Elbow
Kentrell Brothers LB Out Hamstring

NYG

Alec Ogletree LB Out Hamstring
Saquon Barkley RB Out Ankle
Tae Davis LB Out Concussion
Lorenzo Carter LB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 28
–
NYG 10

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:50 FG MIN (8:50) 5-D.Bailey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. MIN 3 – NYG 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD MIN (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 9 – NYG 0
  • Q2 12:16 TD NYG (12:16) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 10 – NYG 6
  • Q2 07:56 FG MIN (7:56) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. MIN 13 – NYG 7
  • Q2 02:13 SAF MIN (2:13) 28-J.Hilliman right guard tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (55-A.Barr). MIN 15 – NYG 7
  • Q2 00:50 FG MIN (:50) 5-D.Bailey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. MIN 18 – NYG 7
  • Q3 07:39 FG NYG (7:39) 2-A.Rosas 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. MIN 18 – NYG 10
  • Q3 04:58 TD MIN (4:58) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 24 – NYG 10
  • Q4 04:13 FG MIN (4:13) 5-D.Bailey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. MIN 28 – NYG 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (8:50) 5-D.Bailey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 52%

    (5:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to MIN 2, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-C.Core.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 12 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 74%

    (7:56) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

    (:50) 5-D.Bailey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 41, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at NYG 44 for 15 yards (85-R.Ellison).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 94%

    (7:39) 2-A.Rosas 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (:15) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at MIN 12 for -9 yards (99-D.Hunter).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (14:15) 2-B.Colquitt punts 57 yards to NYG 27, Center-58-A.Cutting. 15-G.Tate pushed ob at NYG 44 for 17 yards (30-C.Ham).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 12 at the 27
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 80%

    (9:08) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 87-S.Shepard (21-M.Hughes). New York Giants challenged the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 09:01.)

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 80%

    (4:13) 5-D.Bailey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (3:26) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 15-G.Tate INTERCEPTED by 55-A.Barr at NYG 29. 55-A.Barr to NYG 27 for 2 yards (15-G.Tate).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 89%

    (1:14) 25-A.Mattison right tackle to NYG 4 for 17 yards (41-A.Bethea).

    See the full breakdown →