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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
New York Giants
4th & 2 at the 3
New York Giants 10 – Minnesota Vikings 25
What Actually Happened
(:15) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at MIN 12 for -9 yards (99-D.Hunter).
The Three Options
GO
+3.74 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
- 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 3, worth +0.91 EP
KICK
+2.48 EP
- 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT
+0.52 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.52 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
