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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 84

Minnesota Vikings 25 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 2-B.Colquitt punts 57 yards to NYG 27, Center-58-A.Cutting. 15-G.Tate pushed ob at NYG 44 for 17 yards (30-C.Ham).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.30 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 84, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 42, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model