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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 27

New York Giants 10 – Minnesota Vikings 25

What Actually Happened

(9:08) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 87-S.Shepard (21-M.Hughes). New York Giants challenged the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 09:01.)

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.87 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.73 EP