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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 27

Minnesota Vikings 25 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 5-D.Bailey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +3.88 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 27, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 37, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model