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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 75

New York Giants 10 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(3:26) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 15-G.Tate INTERCEPTED by 55-A.Barr at NYG 29. 55-A.Barr to NYG 27 for 2 yards (15-G.Tate).

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.71 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 75, worth -2.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 32, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model