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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 39

New York Giants 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(5:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to MIN 2, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-C.Core.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.05 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model