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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 19

New England Patriots 6 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 2-M.Nugent 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.62 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 19, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP