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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2019-10-06 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -15.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

NE
73.2%
WAS
26.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.198 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.275 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Tom Brady (NE): +0.186 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NE 28
–
WAS 18
Projected margin: NE by 10 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

NE

Rex Burkhead RB Out Foot
Patrick Chung S Out Heel
Nate Ebner S Out Groin
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Chest
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Shoulder

WAS

Vernon Davis TE Out Concussion
Josh Harvey-Clemons LB Out Hamstring
Jordan Reed TE Out Concussion
Brandon Scherff G Out Ankle
Josh Norman CB Questionable Knee
Case Keenum QB Questionable Foot
Terry McLaurin WR Questionable Hamstring
Chase Roullier C Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 33
–
WAS 7

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:39 TD WAS (9:39) 15-S.Sims right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. End around NE 0 – WAS 6
  • Q1 07:13 TD NE (7:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – WAS 7
  • Q2 10:39 FG NE (10:39) 2-M.Nugent 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 9 – WAS 7
  • Q2 00:34 FG NE (:34) 2-M.Nugent 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 12 – WAS 7
  • Q3 11:04 TD NE (11:04) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 38-B.Bolden for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 18 – WAS 7
  • Q3 04:42 TD NE (4:42) 26-S.Michel right tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 25 – WAS 7
  • Q4 09:19 TD NE (9:19) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 85-R.Izzo for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Ioannidis]. NE 32 – WAS 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 17 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (12:34) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to NE 16, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 20 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (10:25) 7-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to WAS 33, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (6:18) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to NE 43, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 88%

    (2:35) Direct snap to 28-J.White. 28-J.White right end to WAS 24 for -2 yards (20-L.Collins).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:38) 5-T.Way punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 91%

    (10:39) 2-M.Nugent 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:50) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to NE 19, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 31 for 12 yards (50-T.Vallejo, 57-N.Sundberg).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 20%

    (6:24) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to WAS 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 18-T.Quinn.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:00) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to NE 19, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 38 for 19 yards (5-T.Way). PENALTY on NE-38-B.Bolden, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 38.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:09) 7-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to WAS 16, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-T.Quinn pushed ob at WAS 25 for 9 yards (39-J.Richards).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (:34) 2-M.Nugent 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 13 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 26%

    (7:45) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to NE 12, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:31) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to NE 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 13 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:28) 7-J.Bailey punts 57 yards to WAS 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 18-T.Quinn.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 16 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (13:35) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to NE 24, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 42 for 18 yards (51-S.Hamilton).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 11 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:19) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to NE 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski. PENALTY on NE-33-J.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 26.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:52) 7-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to WAS 35, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:15) 5-T.Way punts 59 yards to NE 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-55-C.Holcomb.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 88 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (2:29) 7-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to WAS 40, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.