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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 75

Washington Commanders 7 – New England Patriots 9

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to NE 19, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 31 for 12 yards (50-T.Vallejo, 57-N.Sundberg).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.90 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 32, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model