Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 74

Washington Commanders 7 – New England Patriots 9

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to NE 19, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 38 for 19 yards (5-T.Way). PENALTY on NE-38-B.Bolden, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 38.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.37 EP
57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model