Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 71

New England Patriots 9 – Washington Commanders 7

(1:09) 7-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to WAS 16, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-T.Quinn pushed ob at WAS 25 for 9 yards (39-J.Richards).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.48 EP
61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model