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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 5

New England Patriots 9 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(:34) 2-M.Nugent 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.22 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 5, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +2.52 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model