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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 61

Washington Commanders 7 – New England Patriots 26

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to NE 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.69 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 20, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model