Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 64

Washington Commanders 7 – New England Patriots 33

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to NE 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski. PENALTY on NE-33-J.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 26.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.25 EP
73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model