Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 81

New England Patriots 33 – Washington Commanders 7

(4:52) 7-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to WAS 35, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.93 EP
56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 81, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model