4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 65

Washington Commanders 7 – New England Patriots 33

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 5-T.Way punts 59 yards to NE 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-55-C.Holcomb.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.69 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 65, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 23, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model