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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 17 at the 82

Washington Commanders 7 – New England Patriots 6

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to NE 43, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.08 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 82, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 40, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model