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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 22

New England Patriots 6 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:35) Direct snap to 28-J.White. 28-J.White right end to WAS 24 for -2 yards (20-L.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.17 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model