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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 18 at the 83

New York Jets 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:07) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to PHI 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 43-D.Sproles ran ob at PHI 47 for 16 yards (87-D.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -3.52 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 83, worth -5.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 41, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model