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NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Adam Gase
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2019-10-06 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

NYJ
17.4%
PHI
82.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.190 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.143 vs Luke Falk (NYJ) -0.403 EPA/dropback
  • PHI offense: +0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NYJ on 4 more days rest than PHI

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 16
–
PHI 27
Projected margin: PHI by 11 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

NYJ

Jordan Jenkins LB Out Calf
Sam Darnold QB Out Illness
C.J. Mosley LB Doubtful Groin
Kelechi Osemele G Doubtful Shoulder
Josh Bellamy WR Questionable Shoulder
Daniel Brown TE Questionable Ankle
Demaryius Thomas WR Questionable Hamstring
Quinnen Williams DT Questionable Ankle

PHI

Ronald Darby CB Out Hamstring
Alex Ellis TE Out Knee
DeSean Jackson WR Out Abdomen
Timmy Jernigan DT Out Foot
Avonte Maddox CB Out Concussion
Sidney Jones CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 6
–
PHI 31

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:48 TD PHI (7:48) 24-J.Howard right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – PHI 6
  • Q1 05:15 TD PHI (5:15) 8-L.Falk pass short right intended for 26-L.Bell INTERCEPTED by 47-N.Gerry [55-B.Graham] at PHI 49. 47-N.Gerry for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-96-D.Barnett, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. NYJ 0 – PHI 13
  • Q2 00:38 TD PHI (:38) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NYJ 0 – PHI 20
  • Q3 01:28 FG PHI (1:28) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. NYJ 0 – PHI 24
  • Q4 14:40 TD NYJ (14:40) (Shotgun) 17-V.Smith left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – PHI 24
  • Q4 07:53 TD PHI (7:53) (Shotgun) 8-L.Falk sacked at NYJ 44 for -9 yards (38-O.Scandrick). FUMBLES (38-O.Scandrick) [38-O.Scandrick], RECOVERED by PHI-38-O.Scandrick at NYJ 44. 38-O.Scandrick for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – PHI 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (13:07) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to PHI 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 43-D.Sproles ran ob at PHI 47 for 16 yards (87-D.Brown).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 31%

    (5:15) 8-L.Falk pass short right intended for 26-L.Bell INTERCEPTED by 47-N.Gerry [55-B.Graham] at PHI 49. 47-N.Gerry for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-96-D.Barnett, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:36) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to PHI 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 60%

    (:35) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short middle to 17-A.Jeffery [46-N.Hewitt].

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 58%

    (12:55) 9-S.Ficken 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 25%

    (11:05) 1-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to NYJ 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:20) 4-L.Edwards punts 56 yards to PHI 42, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-25-T.Cannon.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 16 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:32) 1-C.Johnston punts 60 yards to NYJ 4, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (6:04) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to PHI 43, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 43-D.Sproles to NYJ 49 for 8 yards (15-J.Bellamy; 84-R.Griffin).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 49%

    (12:14) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to NYJ 40 for no gain (92-L.Williams).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (8:44) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to PHI 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 13 for 4 yards (42-T.Hennessy; 25-T.Cannon).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (1:28) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:53) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to PHI 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 30-C.Clement MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NYJ-25-T.Cannon at PHI 20. 25-T.Cannon to PHI 19 for 1 yard (50-D.Riley; 37-R.Lewis).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 13 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:30) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to NYJ 21, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 33 for 12 yards (88-D.Goedert). PENALTY on NYJ-88-T.Montgomery, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 21.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:31) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to PHI 42, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 13-N.Agholor to PHI 46 for 4 yards (23-A.Maulet).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 29%

    (3:04) 1-C.Johnston punts 30 yards to NYJ 18, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:25) 4-L.Edwards punts 53 yards to PHI 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 13-N.Agholor pushed ob at PHI 39 for 9 yards (47-A.McClellan). PENALTY on PHI-37-R.Lewis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 33.