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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 98

New York Jets 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 4-L.Edwards punts 56 yards to PHI 42, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-25-T.Cannon.

The Three Options

GO -4.39 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.54 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 98, worth -6.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

PUNT -3.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 53, worth -3.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model