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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 10

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.15 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 10, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model