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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 57

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 8-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to NO 9, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-22-T.Logan.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.65 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 57, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP