4th & Data
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
@
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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2019-10-06 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

TB
51.6%
NO
48.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO defense: +0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Teddy Bridgewater (NO) -0.010 vs Jameis Winston (TB) +0.112 EPA/dropback
  • NO offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

TB 25
–
NO 23
Projected margin: TB by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

TB

Jack Cichy LB Out Elbow
Breshad Perriman WR Out Hamstring
Demar Dotson T Questionable Calf

NO

Drew Brees QB Out right Thumb
Trey Hendrickson DE Out Neck

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 24
–
NO 31

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:02 FG NO (4:02) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. TB 0 – NO 3
  • Q1 00:18 TD TB (:18) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 12-C.Godwin for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – NO 3
  • Q2 10:20 TD NO (10:20) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 7, YAC 7 TB 7 – NO 9
  • Q2 05:37 FG TB (5:37) 9-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 10 – NO 10
  • Q2 00:37 TD NO (:37) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 87-J.Cook for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 6, YAC 3 TB 10 – NO 16
  • Q3 13:50 TD NO (13:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle to 19-T.Ginn for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 33, YAC 0 TB 10 – NO 23
  • Q3 05:06 TD TB (5:06) (Shotgun) 25-P.Barber right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – NO 24
  • Q4 10:42 TD NO (10:42) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 13-M.Thomas for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 8, YAC 4 TB 17 – NO 30
  • Q4 00:19 TD TB (:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 12-C.Godwin for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 16, YAC 10 TB 23 – NO 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 26%

    (12:18) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to NO 14, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 26%

    (9:20) 6-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to TB 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 85-B.Wilson.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:34) 8-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NO 33, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Harris MUFFS catch, and recovers at NO 33. 11-D.Harris to NO 36 for 3 yards (29-R.Smith).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 90%

    (5:50) (Run formation) 64-W.Clapp reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara left end ran ob at TB 15 for 6 yards (31-J.Whitehead).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (4:02) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (2:33) 8-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NO 22, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Harris to NO 22 for no gain (22-T.Logan). NO-11-D.Harris was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Tampa Bay challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 02:20.)

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 87%

    (5:37) 9-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 60%

    (8:18) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 12-C.Godwin to NO 25 for 14 yards (23-M.Lattimore). Pass 11, YAC 3

  • Q3 NO 4th & 15 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:49) 6-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to TB 35, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 85-B.Wilson.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (2:15) 8-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to NO 9, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-22-T.Logan.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 19 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:32) 8-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NO 30, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-98-A.Nelson.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (7:57) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to TB 20, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 85-B.Wilson.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 22 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 90%

    (1:16) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 13-M.Thomas to TB 22 for no gain (94-C.Nassib; 36-M.Stewart). Pass -3, YAC 3