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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(7:57) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to TB 20, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 85-B.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.79 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP