4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 68

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 8-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NO 22, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Harris to NO 22 for no gain (22-T.Logan). NO-11-D.Harris was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Tampa Bay challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 02:20.)

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.05 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 26, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP