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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 31

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:25) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.66 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -2.02 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model