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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2019-10-13 · 09:30 Tottenham Stadium, London GB 🌧 Rain Spread -2.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

CAR
51.2%
TB
48.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • CAR crossing 5 time zone(s)
  • QB edge to TB: Jameis Winston (TB) +0.146 vs Kyle Allen (CAR) +0.149 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CAR 23
–
TB 22
Projected margin: CAR by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

CAR

Natrell Jamerson CB Out Foot
Greg Little T Out Concussion
Christian Miller LB Out Ankle
Cam Newton QB Out Foot
Trai Turner G Out Ankle
Tyler Larsen C Questionable Back
Chris Manhertz TE Questionable Concussion
Dennis Daley G Questionable Groin
Donte Jackson CB Questionable Groin
Eric Reid S Questionable Ankle
Shaq Thompson LB Questionable Ankle

TB

Zack Bailey G Out Ankle
Alex Cappa G Out Forearm
Jack Cichy LB Out Elbow
Demar Dotson T Out Hamstring
Breshad Perriman WR Out Hamstring
Shaquil Barrett LB Questionable Oblique
Mike Edwards S Questionable Hamstring
T.J. Logan RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 37
–
TB 26

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:25 FG CAR (13:25) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 3 – TB 0
  • Q1 01:11 TD CAR (1:11) 76-B.Witzmann reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – TB 0
  • Q2 12:47 TD TB (12:47) 27-R.Jones right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – TB 6
  • Q2 07:41 TD CAR (7:41) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 22-C.McCaffrey for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 16 – TB 7
  • Q3 08:25 FG CAR (8:25) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Slye 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 20 – TB 7
  • Q3 08:10 TD CAR (8:10) 10-C.Samuel right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 26 – TB 7
  • Q3 05:32 FG TB (5:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. CAR 27 – TB 10
  • Q4 15:00 TD CAR (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 10-C.Samuel for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 33 – TB 10
  • Q4 12:56 TD TB (12:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 84-C.Brate for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 34 – TB 16
  • Q4 07:59 FG CAR (7:59) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 37 – TB 18
  • Q4 04:52 TD TB (4:52) (No Huddle) 44-D.Ogunbowale left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 37 – TB 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 12 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 70%

    (13:25) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:03) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to CAR 25, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:41) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to TB 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 85-B.Wilson to TB 31 for 5 yards (42-C.Jones).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 22%

    (8:46) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CAR 1, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-29-R.Smith.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (1:11) 76-B.Witzmann reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:17) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CAR 23, Center-97-Z.Triner. 14-R.McCloud to CAR 33 for 10 yards (29-R.Smith). FUMBLES (29-R.Smith), RECOVERED by TB-51-K.Minter at CAR 37. 51-K.Minter to CAR 37 for no gain (28-R.Gaulden).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:20) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to TB 23, Center-44-J.Jansen. 85-B.Wilson to TB 25 for 2 yards (39-R.Bonnafon). PENALTY on TB-39-A.Adams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 25.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:49) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to TB 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Wilson.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 13 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:30) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to TB 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 85-B.Wilson to TB 15 for -2 yards (43-J.Kunaszyk).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (10:26) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to CAR 33, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 77%

    (8:25) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Slye 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 57%

    (5:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:59) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 54 yards to TB 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 85-B.Wilson MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 27. 85-B.Wilson to TB 27 for no gain (98-M.Haynes). Penalty on TB-59-D.Bond, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:39) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to CAR 30, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-22-T.Logan.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:06) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to TB 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 85-B.Wilson MUFFS catch, touched at TB 16, RECOVERED by CAR-20-J.Scarlett at TB 17. 20-J.Scarlett to TB 17 for no gain (51-K.Minter).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (7:59) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 92%

    (5:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans to CAR 12 for 5 yards (24-J.Bradberry).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:11) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to TB 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 85-B.Wilson to TB 23 for 7 yards (43-J.Kunaszyk; 44-J.Jansen).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:31) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 12-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 47-R.Cockrell at CAR 43. 47-R.Cockrell pushed ob at TB 24 for 33 yards (71-E.Watford).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 9 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 85%

    (1:16) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.