Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 65

Carolina Panthers 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

(12:30) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to TB 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 85-B.Wilson to TB 15 for -2 yards (43-J.Kunaszyk).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.71 EP
70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model