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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 36

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Carolina Panthers 27

What Actually Happened

(5:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.89 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.08 EP
What Happened
  • 57% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model