Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 79

Carolina Panthers 34 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18

What Actually Happened

(11:59) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 54 yards to TB 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 85-B.Wilson MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 27. 85-B.Wilson to TB 27 for no gain (98-M.Haynes). Penalty on TB-59-D.Bond, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model