Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 73

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18 – Carolina Panthers 34

(11:39) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to CAR 30, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-22-T.Logan.

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.70 EP
65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model