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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 34 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18

What Actually Happened

(10:06) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to TB 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 85-B.Wilson MUFFS catch, touched at TB 16, RECOVERED by CAR-20-J.Scarlett at TB 17. 20-J.Scarlett to TB 17 for no gain (51-K.Minter).

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.01 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model