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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 11

Carolina Panthers 34 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18

What Actually Happened

(7:59) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model