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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 55

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 – Carolina Panthers 37

What Actually Happened

(2:31) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 12-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 47-R.Cockrell at CAR 43. 47-R.Cockrell pushed ob at TB 24 for 33 yards (71-E.Watford).

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.27 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model