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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 23

Carolina Panthers 37 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26

What Actually Happened

(1:16) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +2.18 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 33, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model