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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 50

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:46) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CAR 1, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-29-R.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.24 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model