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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 22

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(14:52) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Justin Tucker scores 1,000th point in 118th game, an NFL record.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.13 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT +0.64 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model