4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2019-10-13 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

CIN
31.5%
BAL
68.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: -0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Andy Dalton (CIN): -0.018 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CIN 20
–
BAL 25
Projected margin: BAL by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

CIN

Carlos Dunlap DE Out Knee
Ryan Glasgow DT Out Thigh
Andre Smith T Out Ankle
Kerry Wynn DE Out Concussion
Cordy Glenn T Out Concussion
A.J. Green WR Out Ankle
Shawn Williams S Questionable Thigh

BAL

Jimmy Smith CB Out Knee
Marquise Brown WR Questionable Ankle
Patrick Onwuasor LB Questionable Ankle
Mark Andrews TE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 17
–
BAL 23

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 15:00 TD CIN 9-J.Tucker kicks 57 yards from BAL 35 to CIN 8. 40-B.Wilson for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – BAL 0
  • Q1 11:39 TD BAL (11:39) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – BAL 6
  • Q1 04:06 TD BAL (4:06) 21-M.Ingram right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – BAL 13
  • Q2 14:52 FG BAL (14:52) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Justin Tucker scores 1,000th point in 118th game, an NFL record. CIN 7 – BAL 17
  • Q2 00:39 FG CIN (:39) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 10 – BAL 17
  • Q3 00:07 FG BAL (:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CIN 10 – BAL 20
  • Q4 03:49 FG BAL (3:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CIN 10 – BAL 23
  • Q4 01:34 TD CIN (1:34) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton scrambles left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 16 – BAL 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:16) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to BAL 34, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 13 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:03) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to BAL 23, Center-46-C.Harris. 27-C.Jones to BAL 31 for 8 yards (57-G.Pratt). PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 31.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 88%

    (14:52) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Justin Tucker scores 1,000th point in 118th game, an NFL record.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 12 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 52%

    (10:42) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 32 yards to BAL 08, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 36%

    (6:27) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (:39) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 34%

    (11:50) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 38 yards to CIN 09, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 27%

    (7:07) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to BAL 09, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 74%

    (:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 23%

    (13:39) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to BAL 15, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (3:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.