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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 4

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(:39) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.37 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 4, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +2.38 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model