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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(7:07) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to BAL 09, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.89 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 50, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP