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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 31

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.38 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model