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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 79

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 9-L.Cooke punts 61 yards to NO 18, Center-46-M.Orzech, downed by JAX-22-C.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.95 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 79, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 36, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model