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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
@
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
Sunday 2019-10-13 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

NO
48.0%
JAX
52.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 22
–
JAX 23
Projected margin: JAX by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

NO

Drew Brees QB Out right Thumb
Trey Hendrickson DE Out Neck
Tre'Quan Smith WR Out Ankle
Alvin Kamara RB Questionable Ankle

JAX

Josh Oliver TE Out Hamstring
Lerentee McCray DE Questionable Oblique
Jalen Ramsey CB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 13
–
JAX 6

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:33 FG NO (2:33) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 3 – JAX 0
  • Q2 02:44 FG JAX (2:44) 4-J.Lambo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. NO 3 – JAX 3
  • Q3 08:42 FG NO (8:42) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 6 – JAX 3
  • Q3 03:14 FG JAX (3:14) 4-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. NO 6 – JAX 6
  • Q4 11:53 TD NO (11:53) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 87-J.Cook for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 12 – JAX 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 28%

    (12:45) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to JAX 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (10:08) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to NO 30, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 44%

    (6:15) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to JAX 2, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-34-J.Hardee.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to JAX 46, Center-46-M.Orzech. 11-D.Harris to JAX 37 for 9 yards (48-L.Jacobs; 55-L.McCray).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 12 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 79%

    (2:33) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:43) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to NO 14, Center-46-M.Orzech. 11-D.Harris to NO 17 for 3 yards (42-A.Wingard).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 30%

    (13:28) 6-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to JAX 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (11:31) 9-L.Cooke punts 61 yards to NO 18, Center-46-M.Orzech, downed by JAX-22-C.Davis.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (9:52) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to JAX 30, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (2:44) 4-J.Lambo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 32%

    (1:06) 6-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to JAX 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (8:42) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 6 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%

    (3:14) 4-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 55%

    (9:15) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete short middle to 18-C.Conley.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 12 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:48) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to JAX 11, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 11 for no gain (34-J.Hardee; 48-J.Gray).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:13) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to NO 40, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.