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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 51

New Orleans Saints 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(12:45) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to JAX 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.26 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 51, worth -3.34 EP
KICK -2.09 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.16 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.34 EP
PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP