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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 3

New Orleans Saints 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 3, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP