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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(9:15) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete short middle to 18-C.Conley.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.26 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model