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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to NO 30, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.87 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 71, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 29, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP