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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 84

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to NO 40, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.35 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 84, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 42, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model